Predictions of a single interconnected network, referred to as the Internet of Everything (IoX), that will allow diverse sensors to interact, aren’t going to materialize, according to a recent industry report.
“Many smart applications have emerged, but they are using different networks, because customers are making independent decisions on network technology and devices — meaning the markets are growing more vertically instead of horizontally,” said Joe Madden, principal analyst, Mobile Experts.
But that doesn’t mean that the IoT industry has not matured, according to a recent report, LPWA 2018. During the last two years, IoT has moved from the chaos of having 15 competing wireless formats to the clarity of two front runners, LoRa (which stands for Long Range) for private networks and NB-IoT (Narrowband-IoT), for public networks.
“Overall, we see two major market areas emerging here, with distinct needs for private networks and other requirements for high RF performance and wide coverage,” Madden wrote in the executive summary of the report. “LoRa and NB-IoT are the big winners.”
Mobile Experts studied the economics and business cases of LTE-M versus NB-IoT, LoRa and others such as SigFox and Weightless. The group found that NB-IoT benefits from lower costs for the devices compared with LTE-M.
“LTE-M is not going to be as successful as LoRa and NB-IoT,” Madden said. “NB-IoT benefits from lower cost devices. In Canada, they promoted NB-IoT and developed lower cost chipsets than LTE-M.” The Chinese government is also playing a role in the success of NB-IoT, subsidizing devices and semiconductors. Plus, all three state-owned mobile operators are deploying nationwide NB-IoT networks.
Regardless of RF performance, Madden said that some technologies are favored because they allow enterprises to own and operate their own networks.
“This gives LoRa a major boost, along with a few other unlicensed technologies that focus on specific vertical markets,” he wrote. “LoRa takes best advantage of the private-network business model because of its open ecosystem and good RF/battery performance.”
For more information on LPWA 2018, visit here.
J. Sharpe Smith
J. Sharpe Smith joined AGL in 2007 as contributing editor to the magazine and as editor of eDigest email newsletter. He has 29 years of experience writing about industrial communications, paging, cellular, small cells, DAS and towers. Previously, he worked for the Enterprise Wireless Alliance as editor of the Enterprise Wireless Magazine. Before that, he edited the Wireless Journal for CTIA and he began his wireless journalism career with Phillips Publishing, now Access Intelligence. Sharpe Smith may be contacted at: email@example.com.
China will lead the world with in sub-6 GHz 5G deployments followed by countries such as Japan, Korea, and northern Europe, according to a new report from Mobile Experts. The United States will join when it has spectrum available, while central/southern Europe and the rest of the world will be slower to respond.
“We see a massive surge in 5G coming in China below 5 GHz,” said Principal Analyst Kyung Mun. “It will be followed by a more incremental rise in other countries around the world. Using our GkM traffic density model and some rigorous ROI analysis, we have demonstrated just how this will happen, and where the growth of 5G will be dissimilar to LTE.”
The Mobile Experts report notes that overall, the integration of Massive MIMO with passive antennas will be key to achieving small size in the RRH. Simply deploying a separate active antenna/radio unit would not be ideal, especially in markets with leased towers where the additional lease space could cost thousands of dollars per month. An appendix included in the report explains multiple example of active-passive antenna products.
“The radio configuration has not settled down yet,” remarked Chief Analyst Joe Madden. “We see variations ranging from 4T4R to 1024T1024R, at multiple power levels and in multiple bands. That’s a lot of fragmentation, but we have been able to identify how a few choices that will emerge from the confusion.”
Subscribers to Mobile Experts research will receive the full report, which contains detailed and comprehensive cost analysis for 5G networks and client devices. It also includes more than 30 photos of each competitor’s Massive MIMO products, as well as competitive analysis of size and power efficiency for each vendor. The report covers high-level concepts such as Mobile Edge Computing, Cloud RAN architecture, Stand-Alone and Non-Standalone network usage, 5G Synchronization, Network Slicing, and RF semiconductor comparisons.
The 5G forecast provides a clear view of the direction for 5G networks, as well as client devices ranging from handsets to tablets, PCs, CPEs, and IoT devices.
To find out more about this report, click here.
Mobile Experts has released an update on the future of the Internet of Things, after two years investigating the IoT market from the bottom up.
Mobile Experts interviewed customers like Ford, GE, Johnson Controls, PG&E, UPS, and Kaiser Permanente to gain a view of the top tier in five key vertical markets. Over 150 interviews have built up the forecast one market area at a time. Then, the top-tier enterprise view was compared with input from dozens of semiconductor vendors, to triangulate on a realistic forecast.
“The IoT market has started a new growth phase due to the release of new wireless formats, including BLE, LoRa, LTE-M, and NB-IoT,” said Principal Analyst Joe Madden. “These are a solid improvement on prior wireless formats, since they offer long-range connectivity with long battery life. Over the long term, we expect the current list of 70 IoT connectivity technologies to consolidate down to 20-25 technologies, based on seven key differentiating factors that we describe in more detail in this report.”
Mobile Experts’ predictions show an installed base of 6-10 billion IoT devices in 2020, while many others are estimating 20 billion devices in 2020.
“More than 10 billion RFID tags are shipping this year, so a lot of the market hype is based on large numbers of devices that cost ten cents each,” Madden said. “We don’t include RFID in our IoT forecast, but we analyze RFID in great detail because existing techniques like RFID, AMR/AMI, and telematics have already established an ecosystem in key vertical markets.
“There is important growth in the existing markets, and the examples of RFID, telematics, and smart meters are a good way to gauge the speed of growth in newer markets,” he added. “We followed a logical approach, to avoid guesswork in every step of our process.”
June 27, 2017 —
An analysis of the small cell market conducted by Mobile Experts concludes that the market is evolving rapidly. Kyung Mun, a senior analyst, said small cells will become an integral part of mobile networks as operators make the move toward hyperdense networks with 5G services.
Technology choices range from frequency-division duplex/time=division Long Term Evolution (FDD/TD-LTE) modulation, unlicensed and licensed-assisted access LTE (LTE-U/LAA), LTE and wireless local area network aggregation (LWA), Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS), and even carrier Wi-Fi (self-organizing and self-optimizing Wi-Fi). The study found that although major mobile infrastructure suppliers, including Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia, take larger shares of the carrier outdoor segment through macro-parity small cells that take advantage of macro footprints, smaller companies, such as Spidercloud and Airspan, are finding success in enterprise and indoor segments at several Tier 1 mobile operator accounts.
By 2022, Mobile Experts predicts small cells’ revenue to triple, reaching more than $4.5 billion over the forecast period. Mun said that although the overall market includes residential femtocells, the growth for nonresidential small cells is more dramatic.
“We expect carrier and enterprise segments to grow at more than a 30 percent compound annual growth rate from 2016 to 2022,” he said.
DAS and Wi-Fi
The long-suffering mobile network and Wi-Fi service at the Las Vegas Convention Center now works well, thanks to an $18 million upgrade by Cox Business and InSite Wireless Group.
Hugh Sinnock, vice president of customer experience for the venue operator, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, said the indoor DAS and Wi-Fi system boasts more than 2,200 access points and a capacity equal to 14 cell towers. During the International Wireless Communications Expo (IWCE) conducted in March, Sinnock spoke about the installation.
April 5, 2017 —
The global small cell forecast ratcheted down a notch, as some programs in China and ‘direct-to-enterprise’ channel did not materialize as anticipated, according to Mobile Experts’ analysis on the small cell market. However, growth due to “densification” and indoor coverage is resulting in a strong revenue outlook. The report aggregates years of acquired knowledge along with present observations that culminate in the accurate future projections.
“The overall market, including residential femtocells, is growing at about 17 percent (CAGR) over our forecast period,” said Mobile Experts Senior Analyst Kyung Mun. “But the growth for non-residential small cells is even more dramatic. We expect carrier and enterprise segments to grow at over 30 percent CAGR from 2016-2022.”
Carriers with broad LTE coverage are reaching a level of traffic density in excess of 1 Gbps/km2, which leads to a need for small cells to increase capacity. Additional small cells are used to expand mobile coverage in strategic locations within macro coverage areas to target high-value customers, Mobile Experts reveals in the new report.
“Overall, the small cell market is evolving rapidly. CPRI will be giving way to split-baseband architectures. Small cells will become an integral part of mobile networks as operators make the move toward hyper-dense networks with 5G services,” Kyung Mun, Senior Analyst at Mobile Experts, commented. “We’re optimistic that this upward trend will continue—and we’ll be tracking the continued progress carefully.”
Mobile Experts reports that technology choices from FDD/TD-LTE, LTE-U/LAA, LWA, CBRS, and even Carrier Wi-Fi are available for carriers and enterprises to address mobile data growth. While major mobile infrastructure suppliers including Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia take larger shares of the carrier outdoor segment through ‘macro parity’ small cells, which take advantage of their macro ‘footprints’, smaller companies such as Spidercloud and Airspan are finding success in enterprise and indoor segments at several Tier 1 operator accounts.
By 2022, Mobile Experts predicts small cells revenue to triple, over their forecast period, to reach over $4.5 billion.
Topics covered in this report include small cells, enterprise, LTE-U, LAA, LWA, CBRS, 5G, HetNet, CPRI, split baseband, remote radio head, RRH, neutral host, fixed mobile convergence, indoor, outdoor, residential femtocell, enterprise, carrier Wi-Fi, virtualized RAN, multi-operator, massive MIMO, millimeter wave, fronthaul, and backhaul.