5G: When Will Hype Become Reality?

Ernest Worthman, IEEE Senior Member

January 5, 2018

There was a lot of talk in 2017 that 2018 will see 5G appear. Depending upon from whom you get your information, it is anywhere from already being here to being several years out; this in spite of the 3GPP ratification of the Non-Standalone (NSA) 5G New Radio (NR) specification.

I have been somewhat critical of the NSA-NR spec. While it offers a set of bounds that can be used as early guidelines, unless it becomes a very well adhered to spec and the NSA has the goal of becoming “S,” it can cause more problems than it solves. Lets’ be honest, it was only created because of the pressure to keep 5G on target.

We will see some 5G movement in 2018. The trick is to continue to separate the hype from reality. The fact remains that mmWave 5G is still in the development and trial stage and that segment, along with enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), will not be out in 2018. What we will be seeing is fixed wireless in the mmWave spectrum and some 5G-like deployments at lower frequencies where propagation is well understood.

However, there are possible spoilers:

Show me the money – while some companies, like Qualcomm, are willing to develop 5G (or 5G-like) products, not everybody is in the same boat. There are many possible use cases for 5G, but most companies are not willing to throw a lot of money at it until they are reasonably convinced they are going to get some ROI. While everybody wants 5G, it is still a bit nebulous as to what, when, how and where.
While the need for additional spectrum and densification is definitely an issue, there are several advancements and emerging platforms/technologies, in existing systems, that are picking up some of the slack (carrier aggregation, small cells, MIMO, network slicing, network functions virtualization and software defined networks, etc.). These can be applied, to some degree or another, to 4G networks. There is also some new spectrum coming on line (not enough, but it helps).
Another spoiler may be the NSA-NR spec. It is also nebulous, even though a rather impressive list of companies has signed up for it, because some of the big players are absent. How many of those, if any, will commit to it in 2018 is yet to be seen.

So, while 5G will, certainly, be a hot topic in 2018. Exactly how far and what segments of the platform will deploy, however, is uncertain.

Ernest Worthman is the Executive Editor/Applied Wireless Technology. His 20-plus years of editorial experience includes being the Editorial Director of Wireless Design and Development and Fiber Optic Technology, the Editor of RF Design, the Technical Editor of Communications Magazine, Cellular Business, Global Communications and a Contributing Technical Editor to Mobile Radio Technology, Satellite Communications, as well as computer-related periodicals such as Windows NT. His technical writing practice client list includes RF Industries, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Agilent Technologies, Advanced Linear Devices, Ceitec, SA, and others. Before becoming exclusive to publishing, he was a computer consultant and regularly taught courses and seminars in applications software, hardware technology, operating systems, and electronics. Ernest’s client list has included Lucent Technologies, Jones Intercable, Qwest, City and County of Denver, TCI, Sandia National Labs, Goldman Sachs, and other businesses. His credentials include a BS, Electronic Engineering Technology; A.A.S, Electronic Digital Technology. He has held a Colorado Post-Secondary/Adult teaching credential, member of IBM’s Software Developers Assistance Program and Independent Vendor League, a Microsoft Solutions Provider Partner, and a life member of the IEEE. He has been certified as an IBM Certified OS2 consultant and trainer; WordPerfect Corporation Developer/Consultant and Lotus Development Corporation Developer/Consultant. He was also a first-class FCC technician in the early days of radio. Ernest Worthman may be contacted at: eworthman@aglmediagroup.com.