There is Hope for Global 5G Collaboration on the Horizon

By Ernest Worthman, Executive Editor, AWT magazine, Senior Member, IEEE

November 19, 2020

Ern’s Perspective —

Worthman

The election is over. As we inch towards 2021, we still have the pandemic hitting us as hard as ever. However, there is hope on the horizon – vaccines.

There is also hope in the White House. With the swamp drain about to happen, I can, finally, quit my Dennis Miller rages about our country’s leadership. Whether I agree or disagree with the new regime, at least I can, civilly, discuss it because the upcoming administration will not be the narcissistic, arrogant, and narrow minded as the present one. As there is hope with the pandemic, so is there new hope in the global technology landscape. With cooler heads prevailing, it should start shifting back to where it belongs.

The gaggle of Sinophobes in this administration is about to get the boot. The crazies like Barr and Pompeo, Mnuchin, Ross and others are finally going to be stripped of their drunken power positions. The ridiculous era of this administration’s isolationism has ended. Hopefully, the incoming administration will remain Bolshephobes and Koreaphobes (north, of course) – countries we really need to worry about doing us dirty.

On the other hand, we should not cast aside all China concerns with reckless abandon. There are certainly issues that demand resolution and new understandings, going forward. I do, however, believe we will move toward a more moderate state, particularly because the new VP, Harris, is fairly friendly to China.

Our allies are, likely, breathing a sigh of relief knowing they can again make their own decisions on whom they use for what without the heavy-handed threats and actions for which Trump is infamous. As well, our enemies, Putin primarily, and Jong-Un, will again become enemies.

Interestingly and coincidentally, the United States has just made one small step for technology-kind. Qualcomm has been given a license to sell 4G, and other, chips to Huawei. One can say that is insignificant because 4G is mature technology. However, there is a lot of life (and money) left in 4G before 5G kicks it to the curb.

And the fact is that pretty much everyone has 5G technology. So, keeping it from most advanced countries is not particularly effective. Besides, it was not as much about selling to them, it was their equipment in our 5G core. Cutting off Huawei, and China in general, was just personal for this administration without any reasonable or rational thought behind it (at least for the reasonable individual).

There are pretty tight lips at both Qualcomm and the U.S. Commerce Department. However, and I may be off-base here, but I like to think that cooler heads, sensing perhaps, the changing of the guard at most government departments is in the wind, are flexing their muscle against Ex-President Trump (I have waited four long years to say this).

Perhaps some are seeing a more realistic era being ushered in or are just trying to keep their jobs. For example, The chair of the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee has called on FTC to limit, until a change in administration, its activities to “consensus and administrative matters that are non-partisan.”

In the 5G game, it will bring us back to center as we can now work with China to develop a global 5G platform. As I have said from the beginning, 5G is a march and not a race. If we decide we are the only marcher, we will certainly not be at the beneficial end once it occurs.

Certainly, the walls put up against Huawei has forced them to reassess. No doubt they have seen some difficulty from them, on all sides. However, all they did was bring things closer to home. They were ahead in 5G technology. Cutting chip supply lines did nothing to advance our 5G technology or diminish theirs. It only slowed their implementation a bit while they found, or developed internally, other sources. BTW, China announced in earlier this month that it deployed 700,000 5G stations in 2020, exceeding its goal of 500,000.

As well, Trump’s administrative actions did, in the long run, little to thwart Chinese technology development. In fact, it has and will continue to hurt us, instead helping Ericsson (Who’s CEO is against Sweden’s potential Huawei ban), Nokia, and Samsung (none of which are American companies, BTW), and still did nothing to empower our wireless and semiconductor industries. There was talk of a bailout for the semiconductor industry earlier this year; however, if the lack of ability to agree on a second stimulus package is any indicator, the semiconductor industry should not hold its breath.

The newly elected Democratic administration has already hinted it will revisit Trump’s Sinophobic policies. For one thing, the FCC will be Democrat-controlled. And there may be a couple of more surprises once all the counting is said and done. So how this will all shake out it still somewhat fuzzy. But it can be assumed with a relatively high degree of confidence that attitudes towards the east will change.

As for the rest of the old Republican (mostly) and Democrat Sinophobic guard, hopefully they will start to dwindle and be vacated from their offices during their tenure, for one reason or another, or at upcoming Congressional elections.

While Biden may be an old crow, the hope is in the hands of the many new and progressive younger members being elected to Congress that will begin to restore the ethics and bipartisanship that once existed in that branch of the government.